German GDP Data
24-11-2011
Traders will enter today’s and tomorrow’s sessions with their eyes focused on Europe. The Americans are on holiday today and this will bring volumes to a near standstill after the European trading hours come to a close. The EUR continues to meander downwards against the USD and the GBP and AUD also have shown little fight. Safe haven avenues continue to find favor and the USD has led the parade. Gold in the meantime has found some stability but is near lows and as of this morning is trading around 1693.00 USD. Global equity markets have suffered losses all week and before shutting down for the holiday in the States Wall Street could not muster any positive sentiment. With the U.S. closed today investors who choose to participate in the broad markets will certainly watch Sovereign Debt yields from Europe. Yesterday’s results from the German bond market illustrated the amount of fear in the marketplace as its yields increased slightly and began to set off shockwaves.
The German Final GDP numbers will be delivered today and the expectation is a gain of 0.5%. If for some reason the GDP number get revised downwards this is certain to increase anxiety among investors who are already braced for weak economic growth from Europe. Tomorrow will not see any major data from Europe of note which means that today’s German GDP results and all of the continuing banter from the E.U. about the financial crisis will be front and center. The EUR is trading near its low water marks and the question is if its value can sustain even these levels. At some point investors are bound to ask about ‘real value’ relative to the USD. The States certainly has its own economic problems, the equation however for now is showing a decidedly distinct distaste for the European problems. The Single Currency will be left to trade on its own without much in the way from impetus from financial institutions in the States today and this could create some interesting ranges when volumes dry up.
The American markets will be open tomorrow, although many investors will not return until next week. American data will remain nonexistent until next Monday when New Home Sales data is released. On Tuesday Consumer Confidence marks will come from the States.
The U.K. will release its Revised GDP numbers today and like the German numbers, investors will have to brace themselves for any surprises. The Sterling has been trading under the shadow of the EUR for quite a while, but economic data from the U.K. has not offered much in the way of hope either and the GBP has been lagging because of this also. Tomorrow will be quiet for U.K. data, but on Monday CBI Realized Sales figures will be brought forth and on Tuesday mortgage data will be released.
The JPY remains stuck in a tight range, but it has lost a small amount of ground to the USD in trading early this morning. Investors continue to be drawn to the JPY as a safe haven and traders must have patience if they are looking to profit from its movement.
The Forex and commodity markets will see lower volume today and tomorrow and this could stir some random volatility that is not exactly in correlation with sentiment. Traders who do participate in the markets will need to stay attentive to ranges and sudden bursts of volatility.
