Game Of Wait And See

The EUR/USD continued its range of ‘ugly sisters’ on Monday as the EUR picked up ground, but the USD actually held firm against the GBP, AUD, and JPY. The Greek government is starting to debate the merits of the proposed five year austerity plan and will have to be approved in order to take effect. Like the old five year plans of the Soviet Union, experienced investors are likely to remain skeptical about Greece actually achieving a successful result. In the meantime the E.U. has lined up the IMF, China, and banking institutions in an effort to help stabilize the Greek debt crisis via another bailout package and a proposed ‘rollover’ of existing debt in some cases. The EUR has remained remarkably stable considering the storms that are circling it. Its range against the USD has been nearly resolute the past couple of weeks. The EUR/USD has seen swift trading but has not broken out of its range as of yet.

Wall Street turned in gains on Monday, this after another poor week of results. The question for traders is the capability of the major indexes to be able to sustain their one day gains. Today the U.S. will release the CB Consumer Confidence reading along with the S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI, both reports are expected to have lackluster results. Also the Richmond Manufacturing Index will be published. The onslaught of recent poor economic data from the States has set the tone for a long hot summer among investors. U.S. statistics will stay relatively light after today until Friday when the ISM Manufacturing PMI will be presented. Next Monday is Independence Day in the States and traders should be aware that investors will be aligning their portfolios for a long weekend in many cases. The USD remains under the shadows from the Federal Reserve, which continues to hint that they will find methods to try and stimulate an economy which has started to show signs of trouble. The GPY remained in a rather sluggish range on Monday and has not been able to escape a rather squalid trend the past few weeks in which it has been losing value. The U.K. economy continues to lag and investors have punished the Sterling because of this and the rather dovish attitude the Bank of England has seemingly taken. Current Account numbers and the Final GDP will come today via the U.K., along with the Inflation Report Hearings which will get underway with Mervyn King at the helm. Thus the data and chance for any surprises from the BoE today must be monitored by traders and if the Sterling was going to make a sudden move, today might be that day.

The commodity markets continue to turn in mixed to lower prices. Gold is trading at 1497.00 USD as of this morning’s writing. Crude Oil remains on a downward trend as it continues to be put under pressure due to the global economic outlook which now believes demand will lessen. The AUD has stayed on the weaker side of its range and has not challenged traders to the upside in a few sessions. The JPY proved consolidated on Monday.

Europe and the United States will remain the focus for many investors today and effect trading sentiment. Forex markets have continued to witness a volatile EUR/USD pair which remains stubbornly in range as investors try to decipher which currency has the most long term problems. Wall Street and physical resources should be used as a barometer by traders as they try to judge the temperature of outlooks short term and midterm that are held by financial institutions.